A trend analysis of exploitations

TitleA trend analysis of exploitations
Publication TypeConference Papers
Year of Publication2001
AuthorsBrowne HK, Arbaugh WA, McHugh J, Fithen WL
Conference Name2001 IEEE Symposium on Security and Privacy, 2001. S&P 2001. Proceedings
Date Published2001///
ISBN Number0-7695-1046-9
KeywordsComputer science, computer security exploits, Data analysis, data mining, Educational institutions, exploitations, Performance analysis, Predictive models, Regression analysis, Risk management, security of data, software engineering, system intrusions, System software, trend analysis, vulnerabilities, vulnerability exploitation

We have conducted an empirical study of a number of computer security exploits and determined that the rates at which incidents involving the exploit are reported to CERT can be modeled using a common mathematical framework. Data associated with three significant exploits involving vulnerabilities in phf, imap, and bind can all be modeled using the formula C=I+S×√M where C is the cumulative count of reported incidents, M is the time since the start of the exploit cycle, and I and S are the regression coefficients determined by analysis of the incident report data. Further analysis of two additional exploits involving vulnerabilities in mountd and statd confirm the model. We believe that the models will aid in predicting the severity of subsequent vulnerability exploitations, based on the rate of early incident reports